Hurricanes (or typhoons/cyclones) are born via the circulation of warm air above with warm water below that creates very high wind speeds and needs moisture to survive. In the center lies the eye, a center of low pressure where winds are relatively low. Just outside the eye is known as the eye-wall, which is easily the strongest part of the storm, carrying the peak winds and rainfall. Moving out towards the edge gradually transitions wind speed from very strong winds to light winds.
Various studies have tried to account for necessary factors such as inflation, wealth, population and housing unit changes. They have found that hurricane damage is likely to increase over the years as more people move to the coastal regions, at least in the United States.
Anthropogenic Climate Change Index (ACCI) takes a look at potential global warming contribution. It is the difference
in climate simulations with and without human made gases and aerosols, and evidence shows that it has been increasing since 1960, exponentially at first and then quasi-linear. Even though maximum hurricane wind speeds are assessed using different parameters around the globe, the idea that Category 4 and 5 hurricanes are becoming more common is very evident. Simultaneously, Category 1 and 2 hurricanes are becoming less prevalent.Hurricane activity in general does not appear to be changing much, as supported by the Sugi and Yoshimura ensemble atmosphere general circulation model. Most of these changes are not due to internal natural processes, such as volcanoes or the 11 year sun cycle. Bill McKibben brings up some intense recent examples of early and uniquely forming hurricanes. Hurricane Emily (2005) is the earliest forming Category 5 hurricane (July). The most concerning to me is tropical cyclone Vince (2005), which hit Spain with a not-so-tropical climate. No matter how much the ACCI changes, Earth is likely to reach a limit in the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of about 50%.
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I found your graph showing how hurricanes are not increasing in amount, but the severity of them are getting worse. They are getting stronger by their winds produced as well as diameter but also because cities on the coast are getting more populated. I get that big cities near to be near the coast in order to access ports, but I'm surprised they aren't starting to move more inland so they aren't as affected by hurricanes. Also, after Katrina, I can't believe cities haven't done more in order to limit the affects of hurricanes. That hurricane literally wiped out the city. I can't imagine the impact the country would have faced if it were say New York City or Washington D.C..
ReplyDeleteI was surprised by your presentation that we aren't seeing an increase in hurricanes due to climate change. I suppose having more violent hurricanes isn't any better than having more weak ones, but I thought for sure we would see an increase in these types of storms. I wonder if climate change will have a significant effect on where hurricanes form and where they strike land in the future?
ReplyDeleteWith a hurricane, it is all about location. Hurricane Katrina wasn't the biggest hurricane to ever occur, but it was definitely the most costly and most known. I was not surprised to hear that the frequency of these storms is not increasing but instead the intensity is. It is scary to think that because of climate change these storms can hit anywhere in the world. Because global temperatures are increasing, so will the range of victims.
ReplyDeleteYour post was very informative, like your presentation about what a hurricane is and how it actually comes to form a storm. After seeing your presentation, I was surprised that statistically there is not more hurricanes then before. It does make sense though that they are stronger storms then previous years.
ReplyDeleteI really learned a lot from your presentation about hurricanes. I think taking into account the anatomy of them, along with their history and the current measurements of them is really important to understanding how they have changed and what we are now facing.
ReplyDeleteIt is at least somewhat relieving to hear that the number of hurricanes we will see is not going to skyrocket, even if the ones we do see are more powerful. AS long as we only have to deal with one storm at a time it at least feels like we have hope. Being hit with multiple hurricanes a year would be very depressing to me.
ReplyDeleteI thought it was quite interesting that you found that there was no direct increase in the number of hurricanes, but that their overall intensity and damage had increased. I do think that this increase in strength is connected to global warming to some degree. However, i am very concerned with how hurricanes will increase or become even more damaging in the years to come. The cost of damages left by floods (which was my topic) is astonishing on their own, add in hurricane damages that also create horrible floods and the cost of fixing areas struck by these storms will be quite alarming. A great and informative presentation!
ReplyDeleteBeing from Michigan I think that we do not see a lot of climate related weather changes. Yes we see more snow, then less snow, we see slight changes in the temperature but we do not see crazy hurricanes (although we do see some tornados). Not seeing crazy bouts of weather pushes the idea that climate change is a threat off further into the future. I really liked all of your diagrams, and your mention of the economic consequences.
ReplyDeleteYour presentation really opened up my eyes, because whatever we are doing the states could be affecting or triggering severe weather in the side of the World. Global Warming has some correlation to the big storms across the world, there's no doubt about it.
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