Hurricanes

Earth sees dozens of hurricanes every year. They cause immense property and economic damage, as well as the loss of numerous lives. Climate change is evidently causing an increase in hurricane intensity and the percentage of intense hurricanes from the existing frequency that we have already.

Hurricanes (or typhoons/cyclones) are born via the circulation of warm air above with warm water below that creates very high wind speeds and needs moisture to survive. In the center lies the eye, a center of low pressure where winds are relatively low. Just outside the eye is known as the eye-wall, which is easily the strongest part of the storm, carrying the peak winds and rainfall. Moving out towards the edge gradually transitions wind speed from very strong winds to light winds.

The largest geographic hurricane ever recorded was Typhoon Tip (1979), a Category 5 storm which reached an astounding 1350 miles across. On the opposite end of the spectrum is Cyclone Tracy (1974), which reached a 60 mile diameter. However, this does not mean that the winds were also the mildest. It was still classified as Category 3 and caused $700 million in damage. The winner for the most costly hurricane belongs to Hurricane Katrina (2005). About 400 miles across, it struck the southeastern United Stats and caused $108 billion in damage, as well as millions of Americans to lose their homes.

Various studies have tried to account for necessary factors such as inflation, wealth, population and housing unit changes. They have found that hurricane damage is likely to increase over the years as more people move to the coastal regions, at least in the United States.

Anthropogenic Climate Change Index (ACCI) takes a look at potential global warming contribution. It is the difference in climate simulations with and without human made gases and aerosols, and evidence shows that it has been increasing since 1960, exponentially at first and then quasi-linear. Even though maximum hurricane wind speeds are assessed using different parameters around the globe, the idea that Category 4 and 5 hurricanes are becoming more common is very evident. Simultaneously, Category 1 and 2 hurricanes are becoming less prevalent.

Hurricane activity in general does not appear to be changing much, as supported by the Sugi and Yoshimura ensemble atmosphere general circulation model. Most of these changes are not due to internal natural processes, such as volcanoes or the 11 year sun cycle. Bill McKibben brings up some intense recent examples of early and uniquely forming hurricanes. Hurricane Emily (2005) is the earliest forming Category 5 hurricane (July). The most concerning to me is tropical cyclone Vince (2005), which hit Spain with a not-so-tropical climate. No matter how much the ACCI changes, Earth is likely to reach a limit in the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of about 50%.

Click here for interesting facts and statistics. 

t

Response: High Tides

Chapter 2 of Eaarth appeared to put a slightly greater emphasis on the world’s economic stance in the midst of climate change and how it may be in greater trouble in the future. McKibben talks a lot about economic growth and the idea that a “temporary halt to growth that we call a recession has-in an economy geared only toward expansion-wrecked many lives” (48).

I also noticed that McKibben addresses some possible methods of slowing down carbon dioxide emissions, such as utilizing fuel-cell cars, solar energy, wind power, and biofuels. However, it is a little disheartening that these technologies are slow to integrate with the rest of the world. A major problem is simply figuring out how to design the technology practically. Solar energy and fuel-cell cars certainly are not energy dense methods. I enjoyed reading about the roles of power plants for these large fossil fuel companies. Hear

ing the large economic pay-off that companies want associated the costs of the infrastructures was a bit discouraging, though.

Another interesting example that I read was McKibben’s example of potential nuclear power. He uses it to show why diverging from our current path is so difficult. Again, the economic costs would seem to greatly outweigh the benefits. They are somewhere around “seventeen to twenty-two cents per kilowatt hour-which is two or three times what Americans currently pay for electricity” (57).

After reading about the spread of dengue fever from the Aedes aegypti, I realized that rising temperatures, drought, and rising sea levels did not simply harm the environment and our economic well-being; it seems to contribute directly to the loss of human lives. Insects are the one downside that I have toward the summer season, though the outbreak of dengue fever and malaria is surely going to scare me away from ever traveling to these third world countries. Hopefully, humans will find a way to reverse a lot of the damage that has been done relatively quickly.

Response: A New World

To be honest, my initial response after reading chapter 1 of Bill McKibben's Eaarth is that McKibben certainly seems like he would be among some of the most involved climate change activists out there who has no doubt that the future is bleak for us. Chapter 1 primarily gives numerous statistics and scientific evidence to show that global warming is not only happening, but that it will take immense effort to get back to the original Earth as we knew it. Though I never did much research on climate change before reading this, I always assumed that it was not a very big deal as a consequence of humans. After reading, I'm not quite sure how I feel about its proposals. It certainly has a sense of urgency: "'It's pretty outrageous what we've done.' Which is as objective a scientific statement as you're likely to hear" (10). Personally, I do not think that we live on a very different planet than we did fifty years ago.


The reading helped me understand some of the concerns that environmental activists have for future generations. I looked at this issue in a similar way that I do to our country's deficit spending when it comes to looking after who comes after us. I have always wanted the government to make some steps to reduce the deficit so that future generations do not have to cope with the consequences. However, this perspective with global warming hardly crossed my mind before. While reading, I kept thinking that the reason we keep using the nonrenewable resources is because they are easy to extract, energy dense, and do not currently force us to research other energy alternatives. Even though hydrogen fuel cells and hybrid cars have progressed in recent years, our supply of oil will eventually run dry. It could be a long time from now, but it's still disconcerting. There are lots of ideas out there, but most of the problem comes with the practicality of executing these ideas. Solar panels are great, but they cannot replace natural gas, etc. They are more of a supplement right now.

I do think that the world could turn around if caught in a desperate situation, but I'm not sure how long it would take. The Earth seems to change in cycles, but I think we can still call this place Earth, not Eaarth.

Introduction

Hello, everyone! I'm Ryan Powers, and I major in aerospace engineering at Western Michigan University. I have always had a very analytical mind, and solving problems is what I enjoy. Back when I was a little kid, I actually had a great passion for art and writing; I thought that at some point, I would become a writer, and telling stories was a hobby for me at an early age. During high school, however, I began to develop more interest in math and science than in history, English, or the arts. Those were also my discovered strengths.

I have two siblings, a brother and a sister who are both younger than me. However, I did have have an older sister who passed away when I was a one year old baby due to a rare skin condition that covered most of her body. Although I do not remember that event, I still think about it quite often.
One of my current hobbies is going to the gym. Being active and fit did not really appeal to me back in high school, and my athletic ability was quite abysmal. Senior year was finally when I began attending the weight room on a regular basis, and I have been able to keep that consistency for the past two years.

Another hobby that I have is watching movies. There was a time when I would watch movies for the pure sake of enjoyment, but I have recently discovered that they can be much more than that, much like any other art form. Some of my all-time favorite films are the original Star Wars movies, the Lord of the Rings trilogy, Stand By Me, and Toy Story.